His ministry oversees Nigeria’s vast hydrocarbon endowment. The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Chief Timipre Sylva, says Nigeria is looking to gas as a transition fuel to renewables. Positing that the nation’s future lies in exploiting its huge gas asset, Sylva regrets that lack of clear-cut fiscal regimes has hampered the development of the gas sector. Ndubuisi Francis captured these perspectives and more during a recent media chat, Excerpts:
Recently, I have seen a lot of flying news, especially on social media, and of course you expect that to happen when the honeymoon is over. And very clearly, the information that has been put out there is sponsored; it cannot be true. For example, I read on social media that I had collected $25 million from Saipem to give them a job in Train7. And I said look, already by the time I became minister, that job had been issued to Saipem, how come I am the one now that will go and collect $25 million? And you know $25 million is no small money. Unfortunately, when this kind of story comes out, you are minded to just want to just discountenance it saying nobody is going to believe it. But we are in a country where people tend to believe anything, so sadly. Then, I read again that I have been given $20 million for an OML (Oil Mining Lease) that was valued at $13 million.
I mean, the signature bonus paid for the OML was $13 million and I was given $20 million. This is the value and in addition to the value you are still paying me $20 million. You are still minded to discountenance this but people tend to believe. And then of course, most recently; the story was that I collected or that we shared $100 million from the signature bonus. How much did the whole process generate that we are going to share $100 million? It’s not possible! And of course, signature bonuses because of the latest approval, they were even paid in naira mostly. So, how come people have $100 million? These kinds of stories are out there and unfortunately, people tend to want to believe the sensational. And I thought maybe I need to put a few things straight, and to let you know that such stories as you are all aware of are sponsored by people who want to tarnish my image. I felt we should put that in context before we go ahead.
DPR and FAAC
I believe Nigerians should be happy with us, the way we handled the marginal fields because only last month, you must have heard that the NNPC actually said that they could not give any money to Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) and it was DPR that came to the rescue, because the funds from the signature bonuses had actually filled that gap. You can see that we had actually been making a lot of progress and generating unprecedented progress along with the federal government. The DPR, under my watch, under this administration had generated a lot more than the DPR generated before. But instead of putting that story out there, they want to somehow tarnish the reputation of those who are managing the industry at this moment. The beginning is, what are the things I set out to achieve in the industry?
When I first came in, one of the things that confronted us was the issue of deregulation–the issue of fuel subsidy. Frankly, between you and I, that is a black hole I cannot fully understand… Who is the person benefiting from the subsidy? I don’t think it’s the common man. If you look at the issues around subsidy, you will know that there are interests that are benefiting from subsidy beyond what the common man can understand. But you try to touch subsidy and it’s the common man that comes out to defend subsidy. But I think, frankly speaking, these are some of the things we must discuss, and come to terms with. Can subsidy be sustained? So, when we came, that was one of the things that confronted us and I thought that one of the ways we can achieve deregulation was to encourage the use of gas for our vehicles. Just like when you want to toll a road, you have to give an alternative. I thought that if you want to remove subsidy then, you must give an alternative;-a cheaper alternative, so that the Nigerian can have a choice when he drives into the filling station. That is why when you look at it, we started a drive into gas rather than PMS, and also, if you look at the global oil business, you will see that it’s moving towards gas because of environmental concerns, global warming issues, and climate change issues
I think you are not being fair to the federal government. This federal government doesn’t lack courage, our president doesn’t lack political will. Two things that President Buhari doesn’t lack: courage and political will when he is determined to do so. You’ll all agree with me that the subsidy was announced as far back as March 2020. We deregulated, and we actually successfully practised it for a few months. You will all agree before some people came in and started threatening, when prices started going up. And then we had to come back because it’s a listening government. We said ok, let us discuss with stakeholders. That is why it looked as if we stepped back a little bit. Deregulation was already announced, a date was already taken. We have that understanding. Already we had announced it; we’ve not retracted it. Right now, all we are doing is to take stakeholders on board before practising it. You can now see the disadvantage of continuously subsidising. It’s even getting to a point where NNPC is even finding it difficult contributing to FAAC. That’s the reality. This thing is a necessity. We are waiting for all of us to be on the same page so that the federal government is not seen to be insensitive to the yearnings of Nigerians. We had even announced the date. We deregulated for some few months and stepped back to listen to the people. And a lot of work is ongoing right now so that we see that this policy direction is successfully executed.
Smuggling of Petroleum Products
That is also my confusion, the statistics. One moment the figures come down, the next moment they are back up again. Now, that is my problem. It’s confusing to even myself. This whole subsidy issue; who is benefiting from these high figures here and there. But I don’t think it’s the common man. Some people are benefiting! When you say subsidy, what you mean is that your product is cheaper in Nigeria than it is in neighbouring countries. So what does that tell you? That is an opportunity for profit. If they take petroleum products to Benin, there is an opportunity for you to make a bumper profit because if your profit is let’s say N165 per litre, and in Benin Republic, you can sell it for N400. How can you stop anybody? People are going to take all kinds of risks to take your petroleum products to the Benin Republic. So now, when the prices are at par, it might abate for a little while but once the difference comes up people may want to do it again. You know how it is in Nigeria. You close the border, some people are in shock, then of course, people find a smart way of doing it. Or when the borders are open it goes back up again.
The price differential is such that it’s a major incentive, that is why until we are able to bridge that gap people will continue to do it. It’s very difficult for the government to police the whole country. They say in some states’ your farmland is in the other country, your home is in Nigeria. In situations like that, how do you police that border? These people, their farm is actually in the other country, what do you want them to do, so they can’t go to the farm? It becomes very difficult to police. Some people are feeding fat from it but I don’t think it’s the common man that is feeding fat from it. But it’s something that we must discuss together, we must find a way out of it, if not, we continue to keep prices down in Nigeria by subsidizing it and the rest of our neighbours will be benefiting from it. There was a clip I saw on social media that Cameroun doesn’t import fuel but all their fuel seems to be coming from Nigeria. All the fuel that is going to our Malian neighbours seem to be coming from here. At the end of the day, you cannot satisfy the situation.
If you bring in 90 million litres a day, the system will still absorb it because it is not just Nigeria that is absorbing it. But if you leave it within Nigeria, the consumption will come down. These are the things we need to really resolve as a people. I feel that the best way out is to take out subsidy because if we don’t take out subsidies we will continue to be begging this question. It is not this government that started to take out subsidies. From the government of Babangida in the 1980s, every successive government has tried to take it out because they know that it’s not something that is sustainable. It has defied all those efforts. As a people, we must also be very sincere with ourselves. Diesel and kerosene are now deregulated. These, for me, are fuels that are closest to the people. Diesel is what is used to transport most of our food items. All the trucks run on diesel; all the food trucks mostly run on diesel. Then kerosene is what our grandmothers use for cooking in the village, which has also been deregulated. But petrol has defied deregulation, should we continue with the subsidy on petrol? That is for all of us to answer.
Unfortunately, in Nigeria, what I notice is that there is a breakdown of trust between the people and the government. The press is also fueling that distrust, I must say. For that reason, we cannot really communicate, we cannot think together. We must get to that point as a nation where we can sit together and think of solutions to problems objectively. For instance, I come up with a solution, it may not be the best solution but it’s the solution I can come up with. And if you have a better solution, why don’t we discuss and have a common ground so that we know? The most important thing in the country is the country; it is not us or our differences. If we can shelve these differences and sit down and discuss how we can have policy direction that we mutually agree with, unfortunately, that doesn’t happen in Nigeria.
Some people just because the policy direction is coming from me just want to oppose it. And of course when you come out with your own policy direction, the other people will oppose it. How can we be quarreling all the time and expect that the country is going to grow? We must put hands together. We cannot have a country grow when people are quarrelling. In my language, we say that if your canoe is sinking in the river, you must ensure that you are not quarrelling in the canoe. All of you must put hands together to salvage the canoe first before you start to apportion blame. While the canoe is sinking there should not be a quarrel because if you quarrel in a canoe that is sinking that is the end. I see Nigeria like that. We just ensure that we are not quarreling; let us salvage this country together. It is only when we work together that we can salvage this country. So if you think that there is a better policy direction, suggest it.
Are we selling? More or less, we and labour are on the same page. Even labour understands that. What we have agreed is that we need to have an alternative. Putting that alternative in place is what is ongoing. The refineries in Nigeria are the weeping baby of the country. But we believe that when these refineries are made functional we will know the direction we want to go. If you have a ‘dead refinery’, how do you sell a ‘dead refinery’? It doesn’t make sense. What am I going to do with a dead refinery? Is it not better to resuscitate it before at least selling it or decide what to do? If I sell it, Nigerians will say, ‘he is selling a dead refinery. This government is very irresponsible.’ ‘How can they be selling a dead refinery’? Now you say ok, let me resuscitate it before selling it, they will say why is he resuscitating a dead refinery? So, whatever you do they will talk. These same dead refineries were sold before by Obasanjo.
The same Nigerians said, why was he selling them? Yar’Adua reversed the sale. So you can see the dilemma. The fact is that what we want to do is to ensure that these refineries function. The first thing we want to do is not to run the refineries. We want to put an operations and management contractor–a professional manager of refineries. At a point we will put out advertisements for professional refinery managers that will bid to manage the refineries. When the refineries work we give them to a professional manager. So, when the refineries begin to work, we will decide: should we sell or should we just go public. There are a lot of options open to the government. We can go to the Stock Exchange so that people can buy the shares. Every option will be available but at least it will be a functional refinery, so that none of you will accuse us of selling a dummy. Now, we try not to sell a dummy so we can sell something that is functioning. I want you to support us. At least, let people know that it is the best thing for the government to do.
The Gas Alternative/PIB
The global oil industry is moving more towards gas and Nigeria is more of a gas country than oil because we have 203 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas reserves that have been discovered. All the reserves we have today have been found not while looking directly for oil but while looking for gas. They were almost accidental finds–all of them. So if we target gas exploration directly by exploring for gas, the expectation is that we can even increase our gas reserves up to 600tcf, which will put us among leading gas nations in the world. We felt that, look, let us move the country forward in that sector and I believe that we’ve gained a lot of funds and people are more aware of the need for us to move towards gas.
In 2019, one of the first things we were able to achieve was the NLG Train7 FID (final investment decision) that had eluded the country for a long time. We were able to achieve it; it was a lot of effort to achieve that. And of course, the AKK, which is also a gas pipeline project was achieved in 2020. Very early this year, we were able to take FID on a gas fertiliser, which is also a gas-based industry. Clearly, one of the things we’ve been able to do is to move the country towards that sector and we believe that gas has the capacity to create more linkages with the economy and with the population. I went to Indorama the other day, and I saw the wonderful thing that is happening. Indorama has created so many jobs and if you know, the fertiliser supply system in Nigeria has been boosted by Indorama.
The company is actually partnering with the government to supply a lot of fertiliser and as you know, that has brought down the cost of fertiliser. If you develop the gas sector and the midstream sector very well, you know that is the easiest way to diversify Nigeria’s economy. From gas to fertiliser, to agriculture, so you can see the linkage. Then gas-methanol to the chemical industry. Gas-to-power, and of course, that will power the whole country. You see that if you really want to develop that sector, you can imagine the number of jobs that will be created. Gas-to-fertiliser to agriculture, you can see all the jobs that will be created there. Then gas-to- petrochemicals will now power another sector of the economy, creating a lot of jobs. For me, you could see the focus on developing gas and the mid-stream is going to create a lot of linkages, a lot of jobs for the economy, a lot of opportunities that we can see visibly.
That is why I believe that this country should focus on gas. Unfortunately, before now, did not. We were only interested in the oil, so we found gas. We just capped it and we moved on. We just dumped it there. In some cases, gas finds have been capped for 20 years, nobody has gone back there. Whereas you can see the amount of value one gas project (NLNG) is already adding for Nigeria. Yet, we have the capacity to have at least five of these NLGs creating these kind of opportunities for us. We have not been doing things right in this country over the years. So, this administration has come to show that direction.
Unfortunately, what should have helped us in showing that direction mostly is the law around the oil industry. Unfortunately, that has not happened for over 20 years. We’ve been tinkering; for twenty years, we’ve been trying to pass one law in this country. Yet, this law will power a lot of progress because the problem we have with the development of the gas sector is that there are no clear cut fiscal regimes in the present legal framework. So, if I want to invest in gas, what is the legal framework guiding that gas development? And you know, when you talk about the big investors, they always have to look at the legal framework before they come in here. But if the fiscal framework for that sector is not very clear, nobody is going to bring their money because you want to plan and you want to plan based on the law that is in existence. And the law is not very clear on gas. It was important for us to make the legal framework, the fiscal framework clear before the law. That was what we were supposed to achieve with the PIB, unfortunately, the PIB, as you know, has defied passage up till now. Hopefully, it will be passed very soon. You can see why that sector has not developed over the years but now, we are making very good progress as far as the PIB is concerned.
I want to tell you that PIB is fully on course and we are very happy. We are focused on that. We’ve had many, many meetings with the National Assembly and with stakeholders and today, we are all very satisfied. The National Assembly gave a timeline of April, but a few things came up. I know that the passage of the PIB will not go beyond June. I believe that between now and June, we should be able to pass the PIB. So, I don’t think we are far away from the passage of the PIB.
The president is very committed that the gas sector is fully developed. In fact, the president was, as you know the minister of petroleum a long time ago and he always reminds me that as at the time he was minister of petroleum, they were expecting that they would have achieved Train12 of Bonny NLG in the 1980s but today, we are still struggling to achieve Train7 in the new century. You can see what we are missing? And because of that, he has a big passion for that sector as he was already there before and this was their plan. But unfortunately, that plan has not taken off up till now. That is why we get all the support from him as far as gas is concerned; that is the president’s passion. We’ve done quite a bit. I have touched on deregulation, and where we are. Unfortunately, we’ve got a lot of flaks from all sides. I understand that subsidy removal will come with some pains; I know that. I am not going to bury my head in the sand like an ostrich. I know it’s going to bring some pain. The question is what is the way forward? Can we carry on with subsidy considering how much is being swallowed by subsidy? Can we continue to carry on with subsidy as a country? If we want subsidies, how do we now get money to deploy to developing other sectors of the economy? So we have to really think together.
The first question was, is Nigeria dropping the case which has been a very thorny issue? I will not give an answer without again conferring with the Attorney General of the Federation. If you had asked me my opinion, I probably would tell you what my opinion is, but when you asked if Nigeria is going to drop the case or go forward with it, it’s something the Attorney General can answer. I think the Attorney General has his views on it but as you know, not much has happened from the Nigerian side on that verdict, so you can guess, at least. Whether you like it or not, it’s an asset of Nigeria. If you keep it encumbered in a legal tangle, then who is losing? But whether the case continues or discontinues, it’s for the Attorney General to decide. So, we might both join forces to get to the Attorney General. As friends we can get to the Attorney General to know what the position is now.
On the other issue of Shell going towards renewables, it’s not Shell alone, the global energy industry is moving towards renewables. Even the investors are taking out investable funds from the oil and gas sector and moving into renewables. Is Nigeria also joining that race? It is something that is difficult to say. We are not in that race as such. There’s a lot of funding required for research for renewables and we are not into that yet. But for Nigeria, we are looking at gas as a transition fuel to renewables. Some people are even looking at gas not as a transition fuel but as renewable. If you have gas you can consider it to be renewable fuel as well. The question I always ask when I go for international events is: if the concern with non-renewables is carbon emission, why is the global economy now focusing on developing carbon capture technologies instead of moving away from the non-renewables? If the global economy is focused on carbon capture, we can actually clean up the fuel as well and reduce the emission from non-renewables, clean it and it becomes something that will not affect climate change. But the global system tends to be moving away from the oil and gas non-renewable resources which we have in abundance.
So, should we also join them now to move to renewables and abandon our resources? I don’t think so, and I say it boldly everywhere. After all, those economies were built on resources from coal and other dirtier fuels. Okay, today, they have moved to this level. In a situation where 600 million Africans are still without energy, I don’t think it’s a realistic position. That’s why in Nigeria, our focus now is on gas which we consider at best a destination fuel and at worst a transition fuel to renewables. And since we have it in abundance why don’t we maximise it now so that at least we are taking a step forward as well. That’s our position in Nigeria, not necessarily that we want to go into developing renewables. In energy usually, there must be a mix. You are not expected to use only one source of energy. Our focus now is on gas as a major source of energy which we have in abundance.
You asked me again what price will balance our budget. It’s not just the price, it’s also the production level. You can have cuts, you can halve your production, and then achieve $100 oil, but meanwhile you have lost because your production is now halved. In a situation like ours now, our OPEC quota is about 1.5 million barrels per day. If you achieve over $60, you also would be losing from the production end. We don’t want overly high prices because that one comes with its problems. Once prices go beyond a certain level the competition begins to come from unexpected quarters, like Shale oil. Ordinarily, Shale oil is not very profitable when the price is at a certain level but once the price moves beyond a certain level Shale oil comes in and becomes a major competition. We always want a situation where the price is optimal for our own production and not very good for Shale production. OPEC also doesn’t like high prices so that we can balance the market. For Nigeria, $70 oil is not too bad. We can live with that. If for example we can achieve $70 and achieve full production capacity. I won’t be bad for us at all, it’s a balancing act as you know. You achieve $70 today and it shoots up, you want to bring it back to $70, and it goes below $70, and you want to bring it up again. That is the interesting game in the business.
Value of FIDs
Train7 is over $10billion, we are hopefully going to programme greatly for Train7 in June. AKK which is already ongoing is $2.8 billion. Gas fertiliser is about $2.3 billion. So, there are a few FIDs that are in line. We are actually expecting to bring a lot of FDIs into Nigeria within this year. These are the ones that I can remember. Nigeria-Morocco pipeline has been on the drawing board. A lot has gone on already; we’ve had some meetings, a lot is still going on. And it’s expected to cost as much as $21 billion,. It’s not a small project! You know that we had the Nigeria-Algeria pipeline before the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline which has not worked. And now we are working on the Nigerian-Morocco gas pipeline. We are still working on the feasibility. I cannot say more than that. Finally, I would say the Nigeria gas flare commercialisation programme is fully on course. We have completed it and you will get the announcement soon. But a few things have distracted us, like the marginal fields programme. With the marginal fields off the table, the next thing that we will announce will be the gas flare commercialisation programme. I think a lot of the evaluation has been done already, and for some reason we had to keep it on hold. We’ve gotten to a point where the winners of the programme will be announced very soon.
I will only say one thing on the Addax issue. And I will first ask a question. Do you people believe that the value of the Nigeria-China relations can be hinged and equated with an asset that is now producing 25,000 barrels a day? Is that what the value of Nigeria-China relations is worth? The relationship between Nigeria-China is bigger than an asset that is producing 25,000 barrels per day. So you think our relationship with China will be hinged on that? Nigeria-China relationship is deeper and more robust. The Chinese have not put any pressure on the Nigerian government as such. There are a few things that are being considered that the Nigeria-China relationship is not hinged to a 25,000 barrels per day asset. We have a deeper relationship with China, a more beneficial relationship that goes beyond 25,000 barrels per day assets. That is all I can say on that matter.
Outstanding Subsidy Payment
We know that that regime was beset with a lot of fraud. We will continue to give consideration to those we owe. We will give letters of comfort to those we are owing. It’s a process that is still ongoing.
We started it, it was launched by the President in December. But let me tell you the reality of the situation. Having launched it, you must also have a critical mass of vehicles that have been converted to use gas. Maybe you have one million vehicles that you have converted to gas, then you must also have a commensurate amount of filling stations that are able to feel this one million cars that you have converted. So you cannot do one aspect of it, both must go hand in hand or else the whole programme will not make sense. If I say go and convert your car and you convert the car and there are no filling stations to fill, then there is a problem. Or filling stations are all fitted and there are no cars to fill, then I have told the people to make investments that are not going to work. That’s why we have to think deeply.
Right now, we are working with the Central Bank to ensure that we are able to bring in conversion kits, critical mass of vehicles and then also, giving soft loans at the same time to downstream operators, marketers to fit their filling stations so that when we bring the two together it will work. So that process is ongoing. At least we launched it, and it has brought it to the attention of Nigerians. They now know that this is the policy direction. Three filling stations that we converted cannot service the whole Nigerian public, and a few cars cannot also make the programme work. We have now decide that we will have a critical mass of vehicles and a critical mass of filling stations: these two are working together, it will now develop a life of its own, and then that policy will now work. We are working seriously on that and the Central Bank is doing quite a lot to ensure the success. The Vice President is actually leading the effort to putting this in place.
Why we’ve not taken it out has really been an issue. If we look at the statistics that are available to us. Right now, gas flaring has fallen to about 8 per cent. There has been a lot of reduction in gas flaring. The problem now is: how does stoppage of gas flaring contribute to the economy? Because if you re-inject the gas into the ground; yes, you have stopped the flaring but it’s of no use to the country because you’ve just re-injected it. So you are no longer flaring it. Now the challenge is how to get the gas to benefit the people. If it’s the flares, a lot of flares are down and you must all agree with me.
From my home in my village when I look at the skyline, I used to see the flares. These days I go to my village and I don’t see those flares anymore. I believe those flares are all down. Now what we are trying to do is to commercialised the gas. It’s called gas flare commercialisation programme. It’s not necessarily the gas flare stopping programme. Most of the gas flares have been stopped. But it’s not enough to stop the flaring, what we want to do is to commercialised those flares so that people can benefit. If you are just burning it off why don’t you channel it so that you can produce something from those flares that will benefit Nigerians. The process of commercialising the gas is in the process. I am sure that in the next one month that process will be completed.
You know this is a thorny issue for me because I happen to come from a producing area as well. So my people are expecting me to say…. But we have to be realistic. We proposed a figure to the National Assembly. I will say one thing, the federal government in our draft has proposed a figure. It is now up to the National Assembly to pass what they think is optimal. My position on the PIB is known because the draft was our work and we have finished that draft and it is now in the National Assembly domain. It is actually out of my control. So, whatever is passed by the National Assembly will be passed on the floor of the National Assembly. I am waiting just like you how much will be passed for the development of the host communities. But for me, it is a very good development that for the first time, we are going to legislate what goes to the host communities. Before now, we had MoUs signed with the host communities; MoUs that are not legally-binding. So, the oil companies will sign MoUs with the host communities; in fact, they call it GMoUs (Global Memorandum of Understanding) now.
They can quote any figure they like because it is not binding. Okay, N1 trillion will be spent in the host communities, it is not binding. They sign it and in the end you cannot really hold them to account even if they don’t spend anything. Just a few days ago, a community came to my office. They signed a GMoU with a company since early this year and nothing has happened and not even a dime has been paid. At the end of the year, nothing has happened because it’s not binding. But now at least, it is a legal requirement. That is what our people should understand. It is not necessarily going to be big a figure you sign in the GMoU but this one you are certain because it’s a law that they must obey. So and so percentage of your costs that can be determined by everybody will form your CSR budget for the next year. So, it is very clear. For the first time you are bringing certainty to that project. You can say NDDC… NDDC like I always say is not focused on the host communities, the focus of NDDC may be in Akwa Ibom to develop Akwa Ibom, but the problem in the industry might be in Rivers State. There is usually some incongruence between the focus of the NDDC and where the problem is. But in this case it is the host communities that are directly benefiting. NDDC is doing some general work the host communities are getting very direct interventions from the production. I think it is a very good production. The percentage remains to be decided by the national assembly.
Shell Onshore Divestment Plan
Shell has announced their intention to divest from their onshore assets and focus more on the offshore because of various reasons. They are discussing at the board levels. We are in talks with them on how we are going to achieve it. There are some options we are looking at. We are looking at three basic options. One is to divest to NPDC to take over their assets as our national oil company. Second is to call independent indigenous operators. Thirdly is to get other independence private operators, but of course, it’s a discussion that is ongoing. Some actually feel that Shell should not go, hurriedly divest. They feel that Shell should still stay in their onshore assets. It’s also good for us as a county to have Shell invest in the onshore because to have a situation where Shell has completely divested from their onshore assets is not very good for us. So it is still the beginning of the discussion so the jury is not out yet.
With prices increasing, are we going to increase production? It’s a balancing act. You know how it is. We cut our production to optimise the price. But when the price stabilisers then it’s incrementally. Every month we look at how the market is behaving then we increase our production by 500,000 barrels which is shared between the countries. We will continue to do that and we are bringing incremental volumes into the market. We are watching closely the behaviour of the market so that we do not shock the market by bringing too much volume into the market at the same time.
We are looking at it and if we see that the market is behaving well as it is doing now then we’ll bring incremental production. You know Saudi Arabia also cut one million barrels. They also will bring a little bit of that oil to the market. We are trying to work with the market and so far, it’s been behaving well. The global economy is opening up gradually, aviation is beginning to look better. With that opening, we believe there will be incremental growth in demand, and as long as demand is growing prices will stabilise, and then we can also bring in our additional production to rebalance the market